Without a drought?
Dec 3 2002 12:00AM  By Seth Muller Lake Powell Chronicle

The Colorado Plateau and Page area have experienced a handful of soaking rains during the past few months.

But, despite some small signs of hope for drought relief, the predictions for the Southwest do not include the amount of moisture needed to start the recovery process from the past three to four years of drought.

In fact, scientists are forecasting a crisis scenario, with supplies falling far short of the projected future demands for water by cities, farms and wildlife in the region.

Paul Ostapuk, a Page resident who monitors weather and drought conditions for Friends of Lake Powell, said relief for the area has only so far arrived in small doses.

"The recent rains of September and October have been very beneficial in terms of replenishing topsoil moisture," Ostapuk said. "This could be considered the first phase in drought recovery. However, the regional stream flows are still running below normal and the regional reservoir levels are much below normal. It will take time and much more rain this winter and probably the next winter to fully alleviate regional drought conditions."

Mark Stubblefield, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service out of Flagstaff, said the seasonal outlook this winter calls for above-normal precipitation. Given the situation, the forecast would have to include far-above-normal precipitation to help the region replenish the water deficit.

In the case of Page itself, reports show the area has received 4.57 inches of rain so far this year, with about a 2.5-inch deficit, based on reports from the Navajo Generating Station. According to Ostapuk, who also works at NGS, the plant will need to receive another quarter-inch of rain by year's end in order not to have "the driest year on record." The records there span 25 years.

While drought conditions may persist in and around Page, the Rockies, based on some forecasts, are expected to receive extra snow from effects of a moderate "El Niño" — the Pacific weather pattern that brings moisture to the West.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation forecast for Lake Powell calls for a 2003 spring runoff to be closer to normal, versus the 2002 runoff, which was 14 percent of normal, according to bureau officials.

"We are optimistic that Lake Powell will be rising this spring," Ostapuk said. "However, the Bureau of Reclamation also is anticipating that by this time next year, the lake will be down to about where it is right now, give or take a few feet."

Ostapuk said one should not expect the impacts of the past few years of drought to wash away with just a winter's worth of spring runoff.

"The million dollar question is not what will happen this winter. It is what will happen the next two winters after that," he said. "Are we going to get back to normal or will we stay dry? No one really knows for sure."

However, scenarios predicted by some scientists and meteorologists indicate serious problems for the Colorado River and its watershed. Those scenarios — determined by experts involved in a recent study — are tied to global warming.

Currently, the snowpack acts a natural reservoir, storing water through the winter only to melt and release it during the spring and summer when demand spikes. If that precipitation falls as winter rain, however, it will fill rivers and streams at a time of year when demand is low.

The new study involved more than two dozen scientists and engineers — including ones from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the University of Washington, Department of Energy and the U.S. Geological Survey.

They undertook it as a test of a national climate forecasting effort. The results are expected to appear in a future issue of the journal Climatic Change.

The study concluded that, among other findings, that in the next 25 to 50 years reservoir levels along the Colorado River will drop by more than a third and releases by 17 percent. The lower levels and flows will cut hydropower generation by as much as 40 percent.

One possible outcome is that the West would have to expand its network of dams, adding storage capacity to catch runoff, according to Tim Barnett, a marine physicist with the Scripps Institution.

"Generally, our infrastructure was designed with the current climate in mind, not a different one, so that creates problems," said Pierre Stephens, lead water supply forecaster for the California Department of Water Resources.

— The Associated Press contributed to this report.